NSE Nifty made history today Sep 2 2014 hit 8100

The NSE Nifty made history today ( September 2) when it hit the 8,100-mark for the first time, but I am personally not as excited about it as I was when the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex crossed the 25,000 mark some time ago, and look forward to the index besting 30k some time by March – as some experts are assuring us it will. I myself tend to make predictions more on the Sensex than the Nifty.

This love-affair with the Sensex is illogical, for, as The Economic Times assures us, the Nifty is a more solid index. It has 50 stocks in it (against 30 in the Sensex), a higher market capitalisation (Rs 55 lakh crore versus the Sensex’s Rs 45 lakh crore), and higher price-earnings and price-to-book multiples, not to speak of being the base for the entire market for derivatives. If you are married to money, like many foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and fund managers are, you have to be married to the Nifty.

But love-affairs are driven more by emotion than logic. And so the public is likely to track the Shifty Sensex more than the Nifty Fifty.

I must confess, I have a personal interest in the Sensex because I was one of the unofficial midwives around the time of its unofficial birth.

Some time in 1988 or 1989, a chartist called Deepak Mohoni – now  a popular face on business TV channels for his technical analysis – met me (I was then editor at BusinessWorld) to demonstrate how good his charts on the BSE Sensitive Index were. He wanted me to use the software, but I was more interested in the technicals output. As I remember it, Mohoni was not happy with the use of a long name like BSE Sensitive Index, and was looking for a shorter – sexier – name, and hit upon the acronym of Sensex. I was one of the first editors to use the shorter form in BusinessWorld magazine, and the short-form soon caught on with the investing public.

However, I root for the Sensex more than the Nifty not only because I was present at the former’s birthing, but because it simply has more oomph. Some reasons why…

One, being more volatile, it can demonstrate more dance-floor moves than the Nifty. People love the Sensex for the same reason why the Dow Jones Industrial Average – with all its idiosyncratic volatility – is watched more than the S&P 500 in the US. A 25-30-point move in the Nifty is less exciting than a 100-point surge in the Sensex even though they tell us the same story.

Two, to know the direction of the wind, you need a weathercock more than a barometer. The weathercock registers the smallest shifts in wind direction; a barometer measures changes in atmospheric pressure, which is important to tell something about the broader weather, but not good enough to tell me which way the wind is blowing now. The Sensex is more weathercock than barometer; the Nifty is a bit of both – barometer and weathercock.

Three, I believe the Sensex measures the demand and supply situation for stocks better than the Nifty for the simple reason that it is less influenced by pure speculation in the derivatives market. The Sensex has practically no futures and options (F&O) presence; the Nifty’s direction is practically defined by the F&O market. Sensex derivatives are just 1 percent of the Nifty F&O market. Some market purists will say the real market is a mix of both cash and derivatives. I won’t quarrel with them. But I believe that the Sensex tells us what the market for stocks is like now; the Nifty tells us about current and future sentiment, including speculative intent. You can like either of them depending on what your own investment intent is.

This is a neat reversal of the actual history of the Sensex and the Nifty. It was the BSE that was once considered a den of unbridled speculation that often led the bourse towards infamous defaults. The NSE was created to ensure a disruption-free market environment where the players were not the umpires. The NSE today is a safe market, and so is the BSE. But speculation drives the NSE more than the BSE.

Four, however, this is not to say that the BSE is better than the NSE. In fact, if I buy or sell anything – which is rare, since I am a buy-and-hold type of investor, not a speculator – I tend to use the NSE because it gives me finer rates. This is also why institutional investors with large buy and sell orders prefer the depth of the NSE. The NSE cash market is five times as big as the BSE (daily average Rs 15,441 crore in 2014 versus BSE's Rs 3,043 crore), but it is still the Sensex that pumps up the adrenalin.

Five, the Sensex also had the early mover advantage. One tends to remember first-loves better than subsequent flings.

If I were to put it simply, the SenSEX has more sex appeal, even if the Nifty is less fickle. The Sensex is about heart, the Nifty about mind. May both prosper.

Sensex to hit 21k mark on Diwali: Analysts

New Delhi: The Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark Sensex is likely to hit the much awaited psychological level of 21,000 in the next week, driven by the smart RIL numbers and expectations of robust listing of the Coal India IPO, say analysts.



Sensex, which saw a subdued performance last week by shedding 0.66 per cent, mainly on account of tight liquidity, may bounce back by surging over a staggering 1,000 points.

"The country's most valued firm Reliance Industries has posted better-than-expected second quarter numbers, which will boost the investor sentiment and lead the market to the 21,000-mark on Diwali," CNI Research Chairman and Managing Director Kishore P Ostwal said.

On Saturday, Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries had posted a robust growth of 27.8 per cent in its net profit for the second quarter ended September 30, at Rs 4,923 crore against Rs 3,852 crore in the year-ago period.

Source: The Indian Express

Sensex crosses 20,000

The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex crosses 20,000 points, first time since January 2008, a 32-month high in the opening session today.



Mumbai: The BSE benchmark Sensex shot up by over 135 points to regain the magical 20,000-level in the opening trade today for the first time since January 17, 2008, on spurt in buying of oil and gas, capital goods and banking sector stocks.

The 30-share index of the Bombay Stock Exchange surged by 135.42 points to 20,041.52 in the opening trade, for the first time since January 17, 2008. All the sectoral indices were trading with gains up to 1.30 per cent.

Similarly, the wide-based National Stock Exchange also crossed the crucial 6,000 points to trade 36.40 points higher at 6,016.85 points.

Both indices have regained these levels after almost 32 months. Analysts said sustained inflows of overseas funds, bolstered by fast expanding economy, helped indices to touch the 32-month high.

PREOPEN:Indian shares seen testing 20,000 since Jan 2008

India's main stock index could test 20,000 on Tuesday for the first time since January 2008, bolstered by rising foreign investor interest in the country's fast-expanding economy.



The 30-share BSE index ended up 1.6 percent at 19,906.10 points on Monday, after hitting 19,927.30. It has risen 10.8 percent this month on the back of foreign fund inflows of nearly $3 billion.

Outsourcers will be watched after Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said late on Monday India was worried that recent comments by U.S. President Barack Obama could lead to increased protectionism and would raise the issue when G20 leaders meet in South Korea.

The MSCI's measure of Asian markets other than Japan was barely changed at 0251 GMT, while Japan's Nikkei climbed 0.4 percent.

The Nifty India stock futures in Singapore were up 0.7 percent.

STOCKS TO WATCH

* EIH Ltd after the hotel chain said it would hold a meeting of its board of directors on Thursday to consider issue of shares on rights basis.

* Resurgere Mines after the company said its board had planned to meet on Saturday to consider and approve raising funds via equity or debt.

* Navin Fluorine International after the company said it would consider buyback on Friday.




FACTORS TO WATCH

* India rupee retreats from 3-month peak on import demand

* Indian bonds, OIS steady; supply, data key

* FOREX-Aussie dollar rises briefly after RBA minutes

* NYMEX-Crude retreats ahead of Fed meeting

* Stocks rise on S&P 500 rally. dollar slips

* US market ends more than 1 pct higher, S&P clears levels

Source: Indian Express

Sensex at 19,500; gold, silver at record levels

Mumbai/New Delhi: Rising for the seventh day in succession, the BSE benchmark Sensex today closed up by 155 points to touch a fresh 32-month high on sustained sustained capital inflows. Meanwhile, even gold and silver touched record peaks. Gold surged to Rs 19,500, while Silver-ready surged by Rs 370 to Rs 32,400 per kg.



Markets up for the 7th day in a row; Sensex gains 155 pts

The 30-share Sensex of the Bombay Stock Exchange added 155.15 points to close at 19,502.11, a level last seen in January 2008. The key index had had gained 1,126 points in previous six days.

Broader National Stock Exchange index Nifty also rose by 65.40 points to 5,860.95. Reliance Industries, which has the maximum weigh in the Sensex, gained Rs 22.70 to settle at Rs 1,010.45, bolstering the market sentiment.



IT stocks were flavour of the day as Infosys, the second-most heaviest among the Sensex stocks rose by Rs 74.20 to end at Rs 3,050.15 and TCS by Rs 19.45 to Rs 913.60. Both touched their record high levels.

Banking and financial company stocks, which had been on the fore-front in last few sessions, turned cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank's credit policy to be announced tomorrow.



The IT sector index gained the most at 2.49 per cent followed by oil and gas index which was up by 1.85 per cent. Shares of major oil companies, including HPCL and ONGC, advanced to all-time highs, driven by buoyant investor sentiment.




Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty climbed by 65.50 or 1.13% at 5,861.05 with 30 components registering rise.

Heavyweights Infosys, Reliance Industries (RIL) and ONGC supported the rally.

Gold surges to record high of Rs 19,500

Gold continued its record-breaking ascent in the national capital today, surging by Rs 300 to Rs 19,500 per 10 grams, while silver hit an all-time high after gaining Rs 370 to Rs 32,400 per kg.

Bullion dealers said the trading sentiment was bullish, amid hectic buying for the ongoing festive and marriage season.

Gold normally witnesses a pick-up in demand in the last quarter, starting from the Rakshabandhan festival and continuing till Dhanteras, which is the most auspicio us day to buy gold according to Hindu mythology.

In the domestic market, gold of 99.5 per cent and 99.5 per cent purity shot up by Rs 300 each to an all-time high of Rs 19,500 and Rs 19,400 per 10 grams, respectively. Sovereigns followed suit and rose by Rs 200 to a record level of Rs 15,200 per piece of eight grams.

In addition, the rise in prices of the precious metals in international markets also pushed up rates in the domestic market, dealers said. Gold in overseas markets, which normally sets the price trend in the domestic markets, rose to a record high of $1,276.50 an ounce, while silver surged to $20.53 an ounce, its highest level since March, 2008.



At the Multi Commodity Exchange counter, the metal for delivery in December traded higher by Rs 37, or 0.19 per cent, to Rs 19,321 per ten grams, a level never seen before. The contract clocked a business volume of 7,398 lots.

Similarly, the gold for October delivery gained Rs 90, or 0.47 per cent, to Rs 19,285 per ten gram, with a business volume of 16,762 lots. Marketmen said increased buying by speculators in tandem with firming global trend mainly led to a rise in gold prices at futures trade here.

The precious metal in global markets rose by $28 to $1,275.70 an ounce last evening. They said expectations of a rise in demand in spot markets for the ongoing festivals and coming marriage season also supported the uptrend.



Globally, gold was a touch softer, but was seen supported by speculation the US Federal Reserve would soon announce more quantitative easing. Some signs that the US economic recovery would be stalling in recent weeks has triggered talk in financial markets of further easing.

That has hurt the dollar's exchange rate against other major currencies and helped boost gold -- also used as a hedge against inflation, which is often triggered by ultra-loose monetary policy.

Spot gold surged more than two per cent to a record $1,274.75 an ounce in the previous session, its biggest one-day gain in four months.



Silver futures at record high, crosses Rs 32K per kg mark

Silver-ready surged by Rs 370 to Rs 32,400 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 320 to Rs 32,040 per kg, levels never seen before. Similarly, silver coins gained Rs 100 to Rs 35,100 for buying and Rs 35,200 for selling of 100 pieces.

Silver was mainly supported by demand from industrial units and coin-makers, while gold prices were driven by strong demand from jewellers and retail customers for the ongoing marriage season. Demand for silver was also driven by record auto sales in the month of August, as the metal is also used in electrical circuit and battery manufacturing.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange counter, silver for March crossed Rs 32,000-level by adding Rs 178, or 0.55 per cent, to trade at an all-time high of Rs 32,250 per kg, with a business turnover of 1,412 lots.



"Apart from firming trend in global markets, boost in seasonal demand in domestic markets on account of festive and marriage season, also helped silver to hit record highs," said an analyst.

Meanwhile, in Asian region silver in spot trading gained 0.3 per cent to $20.53 an ounce, the best level in two and a half year--March 2008. Similarly, the metal for delivery in December moved up by Rs 175, or 0.54 per cent, to Rs 32,139 per kg, with an open interest of 38,381 lots.

Analysts said firming trend in global markets, which generally determine the precious metal prices, mainly buoyed the trading sentiment. In addition, boost in demand on account of festive and marriage season in the domestic markets also gave a push to rising silver futures prices here, they added.

Source: Agencies

Sensex, rupee on a roll

Mumbai: Sensex regained the crucial 19,000-level in early trade on Monday, adding 287 points on fund-based buying driven by a firming global trend. The Nifty gained 83.60 points. Both the indices regained these levels after almost 32 months.




The 30-share index of the Bombay Stock Exchange surged by 287.69 points to 19,087.35 in opening trade. It had risen by 132.95 points in the previous session.

The buoyant investor sentiment also propelled the wide-based National Stock Exchange Nifty past the 5,700-mark. The Nifty gained 83.60 points to 5723.65 in early trade today.

Banking stocks continue to shine Monday morning with Union Bank leading the rally. The stock has surged over 5% to Rs 374. SBI has jumped 4.2% to Rs 3,110.

The Sensex has continued to hold gains on the back of the upsurge in banking stocks. The index is now up 288 points at 19,088. Nifty is up 85 points at 5,725.

BSE mid and small-cap indices have under-performed the broader index. The mid-cap index has jumped 1% to 8,126 while the small-cap index has advanced 0.7% to 10,319.

The IIP numbers have also chered investors. India's industry began the second quarter on a strong footing, clocking 13.8% growth in July. The growth rate -- the highest in two months -- exceeded market expectations of moderation to 7.8%. The growth was driven by a strong showing by the manufacturing sector, particularly the capital goods segment.



ICICI Bank has rallied 3.5% to Rs 1,087. HDFC Bank, however, is up just 1% at Rs 2,262. Other banking gainers include Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank and Axis Bank.

Among Sensex stocks, HDFC has added 3% to Rs 649. Reliance Infrastructure and Tata Steel have added 2% each.

SCC, Reliance, Hindalco, ONGC and Larsen & Toubro are the other top gainers.

BSE market breadth is positive. Out of 2,862 stocks traded, 1,837 have advanced while 937 have declined.

Meanwhile, the rupee climbed to its highest in a month on Monday after robust factory output, and buoyed by a return in risk taking globally after strong data in the United States and China.



In the morning, the partially convertible rupee was at 46.29/30 per dollar, after touching 46.2650, its highest since Aug. 10 and stronger than the close of 46.47/48 last week.

"There is some dollar selling seen after the strong IIP data. We could see a move towards 46 levels this week, but then it should start weakening again from there," said Ashtosh Raina, head of foreign exchange trading at HDFC Bank.

India's industrial output accelerated much faster than expected in July on surging capital goods production, strengthening the case for further monetary tightening by the central bank to tame near double-digit inflation.

Dealers said gains in the euro and other Asian peers also boosted sentiment for the rupee.

Almost all Asian currencies were stronger compared to the dollar. The index of the dollar against six majors was down 0.5 per cent.



The euro surged on Monday as positive market sentiment following upbeat Chinese data and a lack of surprises from new banking rules sent it nearly 1 per cent up on the dollar.

The BSE Sensex were trading up 1.5 per cent, taking cues from the better-than-expected jump in factory output and strong Asian markets.

Foreign fund flows into local shares are a key determinant of the rupee's fortunes. So far this year, foreigners have bought shares worth more than $13.5 billion, in addition to last year's record $17.5 billion purchases.

One-month offshore non-deliverable forward contracts were at 46.44, weaker than the onshore spot rate.

"With US data continuing to be strong, we expect risk appetite to be positive this week. We expect the INR to play catch up with its regional peers, with USD/INR trading in a range of 46.10-46.70, with a downside bias," economists at Barclays Capital wrote in a note.

They expects the Reserve Bank of India to hike the repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points each at the central bank's policy review on Thursday

For details on stock movement see: msn.bankbazaar.com

Source: Business Standard and PTI
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